Autumn 2017 may prove to be a positive time for the development of the Russian economy as a new cycle of economic growth has begun in the country, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin said.
“A new cycle of economic growth has begun. GDP grew by 1.3% in January–May. We expect that autumn could be another positive time for the development of the economy. The financial sector will play an important role here. We see how banks are gradually realizing one after another that a new cycle of growth has begun”, Oreshkin said at the International Financial Congress.
However, factors have emerged that “are working against economic growth this year”. “This includes the situation in agriculture related to the weather, certain negative consequences from a restriction on production, and a decrease in investment activity in the oil sector”, Oreshkin explained.
Meanwhile, Russia has no major structural imbalances. “There are no bubbles in the economy. This means that the economic growth that has begun can be sustained and last several years without any serious shocks”, Oreshkin said.
Russia has made it through the lowest point of the credit cycle. “We see how banks are gradually realizing that a new cycle of growth has begun, and banks are responding to this growth in their credit activity. In this regard, we expect credit activity to increase in autumn, which will support economic growth”, Oreshkin said.
“Overall, the forecast remains unchanged for the year. We expect to see growth of 2%”, Oreshkin said, noting that the estimates for GDP growth from the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank are converging. “I am very glad that our forecasts and those of the Central Bank are gradually getting closer to this figure each quarter. I think this autumn we will see a 2% figure from the Central Bank”, Oreshkin said.